musings on the FO and FAs

Incredible.

This has been an offseason of surprises and jaw-dropping splashes. And I'm not talking about Hisanori Takahashi.

Jayson Werth for $126M/7Yrs to the Washington Nationals. Carl Crawford to the BoSux at the last minute for $142M/7Yrs. Now Cliff Lee to the Phillies for $120M/5Yrs.

Who would've predicted that Cliff Lee would get less than Werth and Crawford? Who would've predicted that he wouldn't go to the Yankees but back to the Phillies?

It's been mind boggling.

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It's been a busy week finishing finals and settling at home for winter break. But I've come to terms that CC is a RedSox.

There is no question that I am disappointed that the FO wasn't able to bring him into the Angels fold. In the immediate aftermath of the news breaking, there was considerable fury and debate in the halosphere over why the FO didn't put up the money to sign him and if it would've been a good idea to even offer more money. Personally, I thought that paying CC the tenth largest contract in baseball history would be a significant risk. I think the Angels FO and a lot of Halo fans are aware of the financial limitations of the club and generally follow a cautious approach in making FA decisions. This is especially evident in big-ticket signings. The FO has generally been good in signing mid-level FA (think Pineiro and the first Abreu contract) and semi-stars (think Torii). The FO in the past have also signed some stars (Vlad, Guillen, Colon), but that was before the high-stakes of $100+M men. If the Halos are going to play in this new FA market, is this cautious approach effective? So far, it has not been. I'm not advocating a wild, irresponsible spending spree, but that the Angels may need to re-evaluate their risk-adverse caution. Sometimes I get the sense that the Halos FO is half-in-half-out, closing their eyes and holding their breath because they can't fully commit on a high-risk-high-reward FA. (Which is somewhat ironic since that has been their drafting strategy for quite some time now, as was pointed out at Halosheaven.) Assessing risk is a tricky business, but I agree with some in the halosphere - the FO needs to learn to take a leap of faith once in a while.

But regardless of whether the FO should've risked the money on CC, the fact that the FO lost out on him brings to light some other problems. First off, that the Angels FO undoubtably got out-manuevered. Not only in terms of CC, but in terms of Beltre as well. The Angels FO were reportedly focused on CC as their top target and very confident that they would sign him. The Yankees were preoccupied with Cliff Lee, the BoSux with AGone, and the Tigers had signed VMart and overpaid for Benoit. Also, since the BoSux acquired AGone, the market for Beltre seemed confined to the Halos and the FO had Scott Boras where they wanted him. It seemed like the Angels were poised to get both Beltre and Crawford. The Halos FO offered $100M+, set a deadline, got outbid by the RedSox, and the FO had the rug pulled out from under them. I bet that Boras was doing cartwheels. Whether by luck or skill, Boras turned the tables on the Halos. The Halos need Beltre now, otherwise they'll have to deal with a host of PR problems.

The first of which is face. Negotiations are based on leverage, relationships, and perceptions. The Angels FO had one big egg on its face after losing out. As the commenter on Halosheaven noted, Tony got pantsed. Tony tried to spin it with his "big splash" description of Takahashi, but that went as well as Sosh's description of Mathis as "premium" - in that no one believed it and it's sure to live a long life as a snarky joke. The FO is now poised to be one of the biggest losers of the offseason. That's not the only PR problem the FO is now faced with. There's also the issue of the fans. The reason a lot of the halosphere was up in arms was the promises made in the beginning of the offseason - that Arte was going to do what it took to make the Angels relevant again. I can tell you most casual fans don't care or understand that fiscal responsibility is important in the long-term health of a club. They want the big names and they want to win. Two offseasons without a big-name signing coupled with a losing season and broken promises has a way of introducing pessimism and anger into the fan base. (As Halo fans, let's all take a deep breath and remember that a repeat of 2006's GMJ signing isn't what the Halos need. They're better off without a signing if it means a stupid contract.)

I hate it, but its clear to me that the Halos have few options this offseason. Waiting for Beltre and Boras seems to be the best course right now, but there is certainly a element of risk. The PR spin certainly needs to be better than what Tony's given us so far, and the signing of Downs, well, I'm certainly not jumping for joy.

(I've stated my dislike for the FO pouring money into the 'pen. We'll have to see how the contract plays out and whether it will follow the arc of Speier, but Downs is definitely a premier lefty bullpen arm and he and Takahashi will be good weapons to have against the lefty-heavy RedSox lineup. It's been speculated that it may be a precursor to trade away the young bullpen arms - Thompson, K-Rod II, Kohn, Walden. I can't be a fan of trading away cheap youth for expensive 30+ year-olds in the bullpen unless it gave the team something significant, which I doubt it can. I believe its either some reservations about the youngins or the FO's habitual collecting of veteran bullpen arms. Or perhaps they are of the opinion that they can't move on unless they correct every mistake - GMJ/Torii, Kaz/Haren, Fuentes/Rodney/Downs???.)

As more details about the CC negotiations come out (mostly by the rabid Boston press), there seems to be some deeper rooted questions in the dynamic of the Angels in the FA market. It's being reported that the Halos' offer to CC was very competitive with the RedSux's offer, but that CC instructed his agents that he would chose Boston with all things being equal. Taking this news with a grain of salt (remember, a lot of FA's "dream team" is the one they end up on), it's telling that the Halos couldn't sell Anaheim to CC. The Halos have an easier route to the playoffs, wonderful weather, a committed and popular owner, a player's manager, a great fan base, a respected organization, and a style that could maximize his talents. Not to mention that Torii is one of his friends. Of course Boston is also a very good organization and certainly generated a lot of excitement with their acquisition of AGone. What bothers me is that if the Angels cannot compete financially with the Yankees and RedSox, what else besides the attraction of Southern California can draw free agents to the Halos? Do the Halos have a perception problem among players as well as the national media? Supposedly the RedSox have the draw of a World Series-caliber team and an exciting NewYork-Boston rivalry. Can the Angels compete with that? The Angels need FA help to climb on board with the "elite" teams. There is some competition rising in Texas, but they just lost Lee. Is it that the Halos suffer from the west-coast bias? Or perhaps is the deficiency of the FO to properly convince CC of the advantages of the OC. Or that the FO was too arrogant to fathom losing out on him.

Do they need to stoop to the level of the Washington Nationals, throwing out crazy money just to get a FA to come? Of course Cliff Lee just disproved that as a certain tactic. He left a considerable amount of money to rejoin the Phils. This is a great outcome for Halo fans - he's out of the division and has spurned the Yanks. But I can't help wondering if this is an ominous sign for clubs like the Halos. CC and Lee both went to stacked clubs. The Yankees are very good too, but the Phils have an easier path to the World Series. Lee did the unthinkable by returning to the Phils for less money and years. It may be that Lee is again showing that he's a special player. Or it may be that it is seldom that an elite player will opt out of the trifecta of "elite" clubs.

Despite the fact that the World Series was a all-west, all-underdog affair, in the FA world it looks the underdogs have some big hurdles to clear.