thoughts: Saunders, PECOTA, &more

Back from a (seemingly) long midterm-studying hiatus.

Just some tidbits that I missed...

--------------------------------

Saunders signed a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration. It's good that they're not gonna argue over $250,000, but I was really hoping for that multi-year deal. Maybe the FO is just waiting to see what Joe does with a healthy full season.

--------------------------------

PECOTA came out with their projections, then realized that they screwed up. Um, yeah, didn't having the Nationals win 82 games make them pause and say "huh?" The use of statistics in baseball fascinates me (even if I don't want to be a stathead), but that's gotta put a dent in BP's credibility. Any good scientist can tell you that data can describe things, but if the math (and procedures) behind it isn't sound then the conclusions are worthless. To their credit, they did admit they screwed up and fixed it.

But anyways, the revised projections put the Angels better than the first version. Not that I really think it matters. I've never followed projections before, but apparently the Angels consistantly outperform theirs. Some fans in the halosphere blasted the projections, others laughed at them (rightfully so, in my opinion), and a tiny portion were depressed cause they actually believed them. I didn't think much of it, partially cause I know the game is played on the diamond, but mostly cause I don't believe they'll do that bad (yay for blind fan faith!). As for their historic ability to defy projections, I actually like it. I like that they are underestimated - it plays into their traditional role as the underdog. And I kinda think its cool that the Angels have some unknown intangible that hasn't yet been quantified into a number. Is it the leadership of Scioscia? Is it their winning culture? Their stability? Their aggressive baserunning style? Mathis's terrific game-calling? And how are the stat people going to modify their methods and theories to accomodate such an anomoly? The Angels are gonna revolutionize projections! Of course, the cooler thing would be if it remained a mystery and the Angels kept using their little secret to do what they do best - win.

--------------------------------

Non-roster invites to Spring Training was announced. The Angels do things differently than the Dodgers and mostly invite players within the organization so that they can get a taste of a big-league clubhouse. That's one thing that I really like about the Angels - they're about helping further the development of those within the organization. It's like they're a big family and Spring Training is the family reunion where you get to talk to the illustrious relatives that you haven't meet but've just heard of.

--------------------------------

Spring training is around the corner and the Halos still have two arbitration cases. I really wish that the Angels will hurry up and settle with Aybar. I really don't think its a good idea for them to go to arbitration, especially since its just his first arbitration year, and ruin all the good feelings from his breakout year (when he finally showed why the organization loved him so much). I wonder if either side is playing hardball. Of course, I hope that they settle with Mathis too, but I think even he knows that it's a long shot he'll win.

--------------------------------

I do a bit of Mets bashing here, and really, I feel bad about it sometimes. Its one thing to kick someone when they're down, and its another to join in on the kicking. But sometimes the Mets really deserve it. How do you not do a physical (via BLS) when you know the player you traded for has some health issues? It's almost as bad as giving a player $47M when you know he's injured. The poor Mets.